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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 30

Chicago Bears 3 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(:27) 4-C.Barth 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.05 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model