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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 7 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 6-T.Morstead punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.97 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 20, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model