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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 6 – Tennessee Titans 9

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short middle to 29-D.Johnson to TEN 38 for 14 yards (59-W.Woodyard) [98-B.Orakpo].

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.91 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 52, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model