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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 3 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(4:30) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.98 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model