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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 1
Tennessee Titans 6 – Cleveland Browns 3
What Actually Happened
(9:39) 22-D.Henry right guard to CLE 1 for no gain (53-J.Schobert).
The Three Options
GO
+3.68 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
- 39% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 1, worth +0.37 EP
KICK
+1.80 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT
-0.15 EP
- Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
