4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 1

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 88-J.Graham (24-E.Apple).

The Three Options

GO +3.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.49 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 1, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model