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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 26

New York Giants 7 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(:42) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 18-R.Lewis (26-S.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.21 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP