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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 44

Seattle Seahawks 10 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 9-J.Ryan punts 27 yards to NYG 17, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 84-E.Eagan.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.01 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP