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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 57

New York Giants 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to SEA 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 21 for 6 yards (22-W.Gallman).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.66 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model