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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 3 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 9-J.Ryan punts 32 yards to NYG 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 84-E.Eagan.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.34 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP