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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 21

Miami Dolphins 28 – New York Jets 28

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +1.61 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model