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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 89

New York Jets 28 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(13:05) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to MIA 47, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant to NYJ 42 for 11 yards (45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -3.36 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.17 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 89, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model