Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 14 – New York Jets 21

(:39) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 57 yards to NYJ 11, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-J.Kerley ran ob at NYJ 22 for 11 yards (78-T.Fede).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.28 EP
75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -2.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model