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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 44

New York Jets 14 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(3:00) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to MIA 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-32-J.Burris.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.17 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP