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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-J.Cook to KC 29 for 13 yards (21-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.28 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP