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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 30-J.Richard to LV 15 for no gain (51-F.Zombo).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.59 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model