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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 19

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(:51) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.04 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 19, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model