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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 27

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(:02) 2-G.Tavecchio 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +2.69 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model