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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 35

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 2-G.Tavecchio 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (21-E.Murray), Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.79 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model