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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 46

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to KC 1, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-84-C.Patterson.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.83 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model