Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 63

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

(1:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LAC 17, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 37 for 20 yards (9-R.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.04 EP
57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model