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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 8-D.Kaser punts 60 yards to DEN 8, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-H.Sharp to DEN 19 for 11 yards (49-J.Onwualu, 48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.69 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model