4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 82

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LAC 36, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.76 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model