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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 19 at the 80

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 8-D.Kaser punts 54 yards to DEN 26, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-H.Sharp to DEN 35 for 9 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +0.72 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 80, worth -2.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 37, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model