4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 84

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to LAC 40, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 43 for 3 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.56 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP