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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 81

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to LAC 40, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.54 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 38, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP