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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 8-D.Kaser punts 69 yards to DEN 1, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-30-A.Ekeler.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model