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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 56

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to LAC 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.05 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model