Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 85

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Denver Broncos 0

(1:55) 8-D.Kaser punts 64 yards to DEN 21, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-H.Sharp to DEN 37 for 16 yards (43-M.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.14 EP
65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 85, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model