Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 76

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

(13:11) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to LAC 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.81 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model