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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 45

Dallas Cowboys 14 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to SF 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.90 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP