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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 15

Dallas Cowboys 40 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:02) (Shotgun) 7-C.Rush pass incomplete short left to 45-R.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.66 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP