Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

(11:34) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to DAL 26, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds. Deflected by #85 N.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.06 EP
64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model