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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to DAL 20, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.84 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 65, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model