Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 58

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to DAL 12, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-R.Switzer pushed ob at DAL 25 for 13 yards (35-E.Reid). PENALTY on DAL-30-A.Brown, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DAL 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.05 EP
73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 58, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model