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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 6-C.Jones punts 56 yards to SF 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 81-T.Taylor to SF 24 for 10 yards (35-K.Frazier). FUMBLES (35-K.Frazier), RECOVERED by DAL-25-X.Woods at SF 26. 25-X.Woods to SF 20 for 6 yards (36-D.Johnson). SF-36-D.Johnson was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Two (2) yards of loose ball yardage.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model