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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 57

New England Patriots 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.94 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP