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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 1
Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 20
What Actually Happened
(14:36) 18-T.Gabriel right end to NE 6 for -5 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
The Three Options
GO
+4.31 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
- 32% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 1, worth +0.67 EP
KICK
+2.09 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
- 1% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT
+0.19 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
