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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 17

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.19 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model