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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 6 at the 47
Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 10
What Actually Happened
(2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 12-M.Sanu.
The Three Options
GO
-0.10 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.96 EP
- 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.50 EP
KICK
-1.01 EP
- 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 64% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT
-0.70 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.70 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
