4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 72

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(:51) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to ARI 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.53 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model