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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:15) (Punt formation) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to LA 4, Center-49-J.Drescher. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at LA 24 for 20 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.13 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP