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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 49

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 33

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass incomplete deep right to 33-K.Williams. Penalty on ARI-68-J.Veldheer, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.58 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model