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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 26

What Actually Happened

(9:05) (Punt formation) 2-A.Lee punts 50 yards to LA 17, Center-49-J.Drescher. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at LA 32 for 15 yards (58-S.Wright). PENALTY on LA-86-D.Carrier, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP