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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 23 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.37 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model