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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 14

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:08) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.97 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP