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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 14

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.11 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model