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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 39

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 9-B.Anger punts 34 yards to ARI 5, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.47 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP