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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 9-B.Anger punts 34 yards to ARI 14, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.71 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP