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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 41

Arizona Cardinals 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 2-A.Lee punts 40 yards to TB 1, Center-49-J.Drescher, downed by ARI-36-B.Baker.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.19 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model